기본 정보
연구 분야
프로젝트
논문
구성원
article|
hybrid
·인용수 8
·2024
Modulations of Madden–Julian Oscillation and Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation on Early Summer Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea
Weizhen Chen, Chang‐Hoi Ho, Song Yang, Zeming Wu, Hongjing Chen
IF 4Journal of Climate
초록

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) are prominent components of the intraseasonal oscillations over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean. This study examines the tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and the South China Sea (SCS) on an intraseasonal scale in May–June during 1979–2021. Results show that the convection associated with the two types of intraseasonal oscillations simultaneously modulates TC genesis in both ocean basins. As the MJO/QBWO convection propagated, TCs form alternately over the two basins, with a significant increase (decrease) in TC genesis frequency in the convective (nonconvective) MJO/QBWO phase. Based on the anomalous genesis potential index associated with the MJO/QBWO, an assessment of the influence of various factors on TC genesis is further assessed. Middle-level relative humidity and lower-level relative vorticity play key roles in the MJO/QBWO modulation on TC genesis. The MJO primarily enhances large-scale cross-equatorial moisture transport, resulting in significant moisture convergence, while the QBWO generally strengthens the monsoon trough and induces the retreat of the western North Pacific subtropical high, increasing the regional lower-level relative vorticity. The potential intensity and vertical wind shear make small or negative contributions. This study provides insights into the neighboring basin TC relationship at intraseasonal scales, which has a potential to improve the short-term prediction of regional TC activity. Significance Statement The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) are two types of intraseasonal tropical atmospheric oscillations. The development of tropical cyclones (TCs) is often accompanied by intraseasonal convection. This study highlights the distinct roles of MJO and QBWO in TC genesis over the South Asian marginal seas (e.g., Bay of Bengal and South China Sea). The QBWO can co-regulate TC genesis along with the background of the MJO, where the large-scale MJO mainly provides moisture, while the small-scale QBWO mainly contributes to vorticity. These findings provide useful information for subseasonal TCs forecasting. There are many developing countries along the South Asian marginal seacoast; therefore, further research on regional TC climate would help effectively reduce casualties and property damage.

키워드
Madden–Julian oscillationClimatologyTropical cycloneTropical cyclogenesisSubtropical ridgeConvectionWind shearMonsoonGeologyBay
타입
article
IF / 인용수
4 / 8
게재 연도
2024

주식회사 디써클

대표 장재우,이윤구서울특별시 강남구 역삼로 169, 명우빌딩 2층 (TIPS타운 S2)대표 전화 0507-1312-6417이메일 info@rndcircle.io사업자등록번호 458-87-03380호스팅제공자 구글 클라우드 플랫폼(GCP)

© 2026 RnDcircle. All Rights Reserved.